The Sports Investing Professional - Wednesday

Tuesday Recap - I am not sure what happened or HOW they
said that POWELL could have got a shot off in .01 seconds but
the bottom line is that they counted a basket after the WNBA
live feed posted the final 74-70. Would have been a nice winner
but the breaks didn't go our way and that cost us $850. It's funny
because you can go to the play by play and see for yourself at
WNBA.com that somehow this girl got off 2 shots in .5 seconds.
Even a miss and a put back takes longer than that. That's what
I mean by I hope the ball bounces your way!
I don't mind an occasional loss but I hate when I feel I had it
taken away. It almost seemed to me that since it wasn't going
to effect the outcome of the game that they just counted it. They'll
do anything to improve the league scoring average.

I want to take this time to straighten a few things out with everyone right
from the get go. In basketball I told you yesterday I hate
"5" and really if you talk to some of the researchers that I have,
they'll tell you that 4,5,and 6 are a garbage numbers in pro baskets.

So to clarify....
I posted to this Blog last night but the Blog does not get emailed
until about 10am eastern. By then the line was already -6 or -5.5.
A few emailers asked..."Should I just buy 1.5 and take it down to
-4.5 like on the original post" My answer was the same today
as it will be any time. "NO! You will be best served buying the
3 points and taking it as low as you can get it." So for future
reference if I recommend a point buy and the line shifts a few
points between my entry and you receiving it...ESPECIALLY
in a situation like today where it helped us get a better line but
unfortunately did not help us get the win... FYI always buy the
recommended amount of points.

Second order of biz. On days like yesterday where the line
is very different when you receive the email or feed than when
I made the post.....check back on the blog to see if I make an
update. The reason I say check back is because the email that
goes out is automated. I don't physically send it. I know what
time it goes out but if I update the blog, the computer will NOT
send you an email update. I don't know if that is different for those
who get the RSS feed or any other methods but for email...the
computer sends once per day. I'm not talking about checking
the blog all day up until game time or anything like that. Yesterday,
for example, I made an update about 8 hours prior to tip. That's
the type of thing I'm talking about. If the lines are off just email me
or check the blog sometime in the afternoon to see if I've made any
update to it.

Today's Play(s) - We do have one play today. With the Red Sox
blowing a 9 run lead there will be no better person than a pissed
off Beckett to have on the bump. In 4 of his last 5 he's given up
0 Earned Runs. If there was any chance of a let down in his
performance it was greatly reduced by the exploding bullpen
last night.

MLB - BOSTON RED SOX -145 [LISTED] Beckett / Bergesen 725 / 500


May The Ball Bounce Your Way,

The Sports Investing Professional

Record (7-2) + $2150

The Sports Investing Professional - Tuesday

Monday Recap - Another very nice day and it basically went
as I thought it would. The Indians had NO SHOT at getting to
Floyd and Florida would find a way to win. I thought the
Marlins game might be close because when you beat a team
6 straight like they had done to the Nats...personal pride had
to come into play for Washington but this is a bottom line biz and
our bottom line just got a thousand dollars richer with our 2-0
start to the week.

For today I do have one game that is worth an investment.
That's the good news...the news that will make some of you laugh
is that today's best investment comes via the WNBA. You don't
need glasses and that's not a typo. Today we're looking at the
Chicago Sky. A Solid team facing a Sacramento team that is
real bad on the road. As much as I like the Sky in this spot,
-7.5 is a bullshit line in pro basketball....mens or womens.
It might as well be 10 because that's the type of game you need
when you lay that number.

Now, I am a believer in using point buys. Some of you may not be.
Do you know why the Las Vegas Strip casinos only let you buy 1 point
and won't let you buy off or on 3? There was an extensive
study done on the VALUE of buying points and what it's actually
worth. The results....buying 1 point is not even worth the -130 you're
going to pay for it and that's why the Vegas books will let you
buy 1 all day because in the long run it actually improves their
bottom line. On the other side, buying 3 points in an NBA game
when the favorite is between -4 and -12.5 is actually WORTH
-190. So when you go to a book who will give you -170 on a
three point buy guess what....you've got 20 cents of VALUE built in.
That's why a lot of books will give you a 2 pt buy for -150 but 3 points
will cost you -190.

Take it for what it's worth. Some of you will always be against it
and others will be for it but I can only go by my own bottom line
and it says that staying on -7.5 in this game is bad news. The Sky
have won all their home games but are 2-2 ATS. Both non-covers
were by 1.5 points I believe. Since I see this as a tricky number
I'm taking a full 3 point buy here and going to -4.5. With
Sacramento giving up 82 points per game on the road it shouldn't
matter but if it's tight and a free throw war breaks out I want to
be laying less than 5 and I'm more than willing to lay the -170 to
do it. Sometimes that's just the price of doing business.

***UPDATE NOON EASTERN - I WAS NOT ABLE TO PLACE MY WAGER LAST NIGHT AS THE BOOKS I USE OFF SHORE, BET JAMAICA AND DIAMOND SPORTS HAD THE GAME OFF THE BOARD. THIS MORNING THE LINE HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT SO MOST OF YOU SHOULD HAVE GOT THIS GAME AT ABOUT -6 OR LESS AND WITH THE 3 PT BUY AT -3 OR LESS


WNBA - CHICAGO SKY -2.5 -170 [3 Point Buy} 850 / 500


May The Ball Bounce Your Way,

The Sports Investing Professional

Record (7-1) + $3000